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DSS, an important module, is the model base that, in addition to other models, contains multicriteria analysis models necessary for various estimations, assessments and evaluations. Although mine action problems are characterized by priorities—namely criteria for priority evaluation (e.g., demining priorities are houses and yards, agriculture fields, infrastructure, etc.)—the problem cannot be seen as multicriteria decision-making because priorities are assigned according to one criterion. Although the criteria in the example are ranked, it is not a multicriteria approach in both the mathematical and practical sense. It is easy to prove that polygons from the priority group (e.g., houses and yards) would be ranked low in multicriteria analysis if those polygons had unacceptable values according to the other criteria. Other ranking methods, such as weighted sum, as well as utility function methods, can lead to big subjective mistakes during the ranking process.

The literature emphasizes that unicriteria or intuitive decision-making nowadays is usually right only by chance, due to complex relations and interactive relationships with real-world concepts, as well as the fact that in real problems there are no criteria that dominate, especially in humanitarian demining problems. Mutual comparisons of relevant political, social, economic, technical and technological parameters are unbelievable without support of multicriteria techniques and decision methods.

All multicriteria analysis characteristics, such as number of criteria, conflict among criteria, incomparable measurement units of criteria, selection of the best alternative (solution) or alternative ranking, can find adequate application in the humanitarian demining decision processes.

Today, according to the available literature, three dominating multicriteria analysis methods are emphasized:

• ELECTRA method (Roy, 1976)
• Analytic Hierarchy Processing method (AHP) (Saaty, 1980)
• PROMETHEE method (Brans and Vincke, 1984)

Regarding the software and concept of something close to the DSS for humanitarian demining decision processes, the PROMETHEE (2.8) method is used.

Method formulation of multicriteria analysis characteristics can be summarized as follows:

• As the first step in problem solving, it is necessary to define criteria that characterized problems in an integrated manner.
• Alternative solutions, so-called actions are being developed representing alternatives, territorial areas, projects, plan variants, resource variants or any other entities that have to be compared or ranked.
• Each criterion gets its own weight, which presents its importance from the decision makers’ point of view.
• Each criterion has a preference type, representing “formalization of decision makers’ behavior.”
• According to the defined criteria, input data for each action is defined as an absolute value represented in incomparable units (they are important characteristics because parameter values represent different units; for example, sq m, number of inhabitants, returned refugees, amount of a certain crops, dollar values or expected benefits after demining).

Table 2 presents an example of technical criteria for priority valorisation regarding Croatian Waters aspects.

Weights are obtained by calculating mean values based on experts’ estimations during the interviews. The model base contains modules with mathematical and statistical packages, as well as software for economic analysis (e.g., cost-benefit analysis). During project evaluation, it is noticed that ranking different levels (e.g., municipalities) could be obtained with criteria generated from GIS or obtained by expert estimations (meaning fast and with relatively low estimation costs). Further economic valorisation and cost-benefit analysis are performed for the first five, ten or more ranked actions. It is assumed that cost-benefit analysis or demining feasibility analysis of a certain area demands that more serious and at the same time more expensive valorisation of the parameter is included in economic analysis.

Moreover, the PROMETHEE method enables online weight stability analysis that is important during the process of weight assessment by decision makers. Figure 4 shows a “screen” with the evaluated rank of 15 municipalities based on eight criteria. Weight change (in the lower part of the screen) can be immediately seen on the upper part of the screen as changed height of the bar representing the dominancy of particular action (municipality).

Figure 4: Layout of the “screen” with evaluated rank of 15 municipalities based on eight criteria

The project aim is to break big polygons down into smaller homogenized areas, or if they are too small, to homogenize them into bigger ones, all based on additional thematic layers contained in GIS (e.g., terrain slope, landcover, pedology, etc.). Figure 5 shows results of the intersection operation of suspected minefields and a landcover thematic map. It is easy to notice borders of new homogenized polygons with common characteristics.

Conclusions and Summary

DSS for Croatian Waters for humanitarian demining action pointed out methodological, social and political advantages of this approach in dealing with the underlying and complex problem. The procedure of priority assessment using GIS analysis and multicriteria analysis, if it is correctly implemented, demands collaboration of social and political authorities and practically involves all interested parties, which are numerous in the humanitarian demining community. Namely, between the “small” farmer whose backyard is contaminated and county and community councils, forums, and representatives, there are several levels that are directly or indirectly exposed to the mine accident risks. All of them, more or less, expect that their problem should be treated as the first priority. Their involvement in the decision-making process lowers tensions and partly removes frustrations caused by problem-solving prolongation. On the other side, insight in the priority evaluation procedure regarding the objectively evaluated priority level creates a climate of trust and reinforces the standpoint that priorities are evaluated properly because they are involved in the process. Transparency of the available data that are the basis for the analysis is important because everyone can check whether “his” parameters are correctly evaluated.

*All photos courtesy of the authors.

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge Mr. Jaksa Marasovic, General Director of Croatian Waters, for support and assistance during project evaluation.

References

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Contact Information

Nenad Mladineo
Faculty of Civil Engineering
University of Split
Split, Croatia
E-mail: mladineo@gradst.hr

Snjezana Knezic
Faculty of Civil Engineering
University of Split
Split, Croatia
E-mail: knezic@gradst.hr