The Demining of Farmland: Cost/Benefit Analysis and Quality Control by Peter A. Schoeck
The value gained by the demining of farmland is estimated and compared with the cost of demining for manual demining and mechanized demining. It is found that for farmland used for growing ordinary crops (as opposed to “luxury” crops yielding higher prices), the cost of demining and recultivation for reasons of economy is not to exceed 40 cents (U.S.)/m2. To reach this target requires mechanized demining wherever possible, confining manual demining to areas not suitable for mechanized demining. A method is shown by which 100 percent safety of the demined area can be achieved and which facilitates quality control. The required capacities for mechanized and manual demining are estimated in relation to the time schedule for the worldwide demining of all mine affected and mine suspected farmland.
Introduction
Following general convention, we shall use the term “demining” for both the removal or destruction of mines and of UXO. While the demining of residential areas and other areas, which must be accessible to people for satisfying their basic needs, are to be considered solely under the humanitarian aspect of safety, this is not necessarily true for mine polluted farmland. The justification for its demining and its simultaneous or subsequent recultivation depends on the answers to the following questions:
The Evaluation
of Mine Affected Farmland
A suitable indicator for
the economic value of mine affected farmland is the annual earnings derived
from its use after having been demined. As shown in Table 1, taken from Ref.
1, values for production, revenue, cost and specific earnings, the latter expressed
in U.S. dollars per square meter (see also fig.1) are depending strongly on
the type of crop. The values refer to European conditions and are, therefore,
not directly transferable to most mine affected countries (in particular developing
countries) where production volume, market prices and cost of operation are
lower. Accounting for these differences, the earnings per unit area listed in
Table 1 are to be considered as upper limits.
Leaving vines and
apples aside because of the time lag between the planting of seedlings and the
first harvest, we notice the enormous difference in specific earnings between
luxury crops, such as asparagus, brussel sprouts and strawberries, and those
of peas, maize oats, sugar beets and soybeans. It must, however, be kept in
mind that in order to achieve high earnings from said luxury crops, in general,
refrigerated storage facilities and access to a market for these crops are prerequisites.
The earnings for a mix of ordinary crops that constitute base nutrients for
the people of mine affected countries, amount, on the basis of Table 1, to approximately
10 cents/m2 year.
The validity of this
value is confirmed by using a different approach based on Ref. 2, according
to which 1 sq.km (1,000,000 m2) of farmland on the average produces
nutrients for approximately 1,000 people. If we are taking into account that
a typical figure for food consumption per capita in developing countries is
$100 per year, we again arrive at 10 cents/m2 year.
Let us emphasize, however,
that this figure is not more than an approximated global average. As capitalization
of this value is difficult, we shall attempt to calculate the value of the land
on the basis of the financial capabilities of the farmers taking a loan under
the condition of annual redemption rates amounting to 20 percent of the annual
earnings—2 cents/m2 over 20 years. Based on this assumption, the
annual repayments would accumulate 40 cents/m2 without considering
interest.
In this connection, we would like to stress the need for agricultural experts
to be consulted before commencement of the demining for evaluation of the land
and recommendations as to its optimal use. For our further investigation, we
shall assume a value of the land of 40 cents/m2 as a critical limit
that, if exceeded, confines the demining to a strictly humanitarian undertaking.
The Cost of Demining
In
the case of manual demining, removal or destruction of a mine is always preceded
by its detection and localization in the soil. It comprises the main part of
the demining work and accounts for the major part of its cost. By contrast,
with mechanized demining, mine detection as a separate time and cost consuming
process is omitted because of the tools moving through the soil striking and
fracturing the mine without previous identification of the mine.
Further advantages of mechanized
demining vs. manual demining result from its crushing of scrubs and other vegetation
and from simultaneously preparing the soil for agricultural use. In other words,
mechanized demining combines the process of demining with land recultivation.
Mechanized demining also enables an accurate control with respect to the area
being completely clear of mines, contrary to manual demining in which achieving
100 percent safety of the demined area is impossible.
Whenever an area is
“mine suspected,” manual demining requires the attempt of mine detection over
the entire area. Should no mine be detected, the whole process is useful only
with respect to assigning a certain probability of safety to the land before
its recultivation. In contrast, with mechanized demining, the land recultivation
achieved represents an upgrade in the value of the land which is independent
of whether or not the land was mine affected or merely mine suspected. But for
applying mechanized demining, two prerequisites must be fulfilled:
One: The area to be demined must be accessible to the carrier vehicle of the equipment.
Two: The land to
be demined must be approximately level, at least if heavy carrier vehicles are
applied.
For this reason, manual demining can never be totally replaced by mechanized
demining. A rough estimate indicates that one third to one half of the land
on earth to be demined must remain the domain of manual demining, possibly partly
assisted by small scale mechanized demining applying special equipment.
Based on data taken from Ref. 3, we estimate the lower limit of all mine suspected
land area at 100,000 km².
The
Cost of Manual Demining
According to Ref.
4, the global average of cost per deminer amounts presently to approximately
$10,000 per year, with approximately one half delegated for wages and housing
and the other half indirect cost for training, support and administration and
capital cost and depreciation of equipment.
The clearing rate
per deminer depends on the mine density since removal or destruction of mines
consumes time. It further depends on terrain conditions, topography, soil properties
and vegetation. According to Ref. 5 and Ref. 6, typical clearing rates of mine
suspected and mine affected areas vary between 4 m2 per man-hour
and 7 m2 per man-hour.
Because of the extreme
physical and mental stress to which deminers are exposed, their daily working
time may, for reasons of safety, be limited by local regulations. In Croatia,
for instance, the daily working time for a deminer is limited to five hours.
In other countries, such restrictions do not exist. Thus, the range of working
hours per man and year varies between 1,500 (Croatia) and 2,600 (Afghanistan,
Cambodia).
From the above figures
we receive the following lower and upper limits for the area cleared per man
and year.
Lower limit: 4 m2/h x 1,500 h/man-year = 6,000 m2/man-year
Upper limit: 7 m2/h x 2,600 h/man-year = 18,000 m2/man-year
If we now assume that the above quoted annual cost per deminer applies in both
cases, we receive for the specific cost of manual demining.
Lower limit: ($10,000/man year) / (18,000 m2/man year) = 57 cents/m2
Upper limit: ($10,000/man year) / (6,000 m2/man year) = $1.70/m2
It must, however, be kept in mind that these values are valid for only one manual
demining process. Should for reasons of safety a second independent process
be required, the above values will double. As a consequence, at a global average,
the above assumed critical limit for the economic demining of farmland of 40
cents/m2 cannot be reached by manual demining, making the latter
a humanitarian undertaking.
The
Cost of Mechanized Demining
In view of the omission
detection process with the mines being fractured upon impact of the destruction
tool before detonation, the demining rate is practically independent of the
number of mines struck. In other words, whether an area is merely “mine suspected”
or actually “mine affected” does not have a considerable effect on time and
cost if we neglect the time and cost for the repair of damaged tools.
Depending on topography
and soil condition, realistic clearance rates for machines of 1000 kW power
are between 3,000 m2/hour and 5,000 m2/hour. With an average
of 12 working hours per day and with 250 working days per year, we arrive at
a total of approximately 3,000 working hours per year. We then receive the following
limits for the area demined per year by one machine:
Lower limit: 3,000 m2/h x 3 000 h/year = 9,000,000 m2/year
= 9 km2/year
Upper limit: 5,000 m2/h x 3,000 h/ year = 15,000,000 m2/year=
15 km2/year
*The term “year” stands for machine year.
Unlike in manual demining, these figures stand for the complete recultivation
of land, which, after completion of the whole process, is ready for agricultural
use.
The price at which
mechanized demining is available is regulated by the market. For the awarding
of demining contracts, the offered price is an important factor. A cost estimate
for the operation of mechanized demining equipment indicates that a price of
40 cents per m2 equal to the above-assumed critical limit should
cover cost and profit at least for demining equipment. This takes into account
the use of commercial tractors as carrier vehicles as opposed to modified battle
tanks or newly developed special carrier vehicles, which can hardly be conceived
to be competitive with respect to cost.
Safety and Quality Control
As one can easily recognize,
the safety of a demined area is solely a function of the number of mines left
undetected per unit area. In order to determine the efficacy of a certain demining
process, one must experimentally determine the number of mines left undetected
per unit area after application of the respective process. It goes without saying
that the boundary conditions for such an experimentally determined value vary
from case to case, depending on the type of mines and their placement in the
soil. As far as farmland is concerned, it is to be expected that within one
season there is not a single spot left that has not been walked upon. As a consequence,
any safety factor less than 100 percent is not tolerable.
Solution
for Combining Economy with Safety
The only way to
achieve 100 percent safety is to apply a tool that combs the whole volume of
soil to be demined with a kinetic energy and momentum sufficient to fracture
each mine upon impact. This principle has already been applied to equipment
developed by a number of manufacturers and some has been field-tested. It consists,
as is well known, of a rotating drum with chisels or tool bits attached to its
perimeter. The drum, in turn, is attached to the front of a carrier vehicle.
It is driven by a power supply at a rotational velocity much larger than the
forward speed of the vehicle. The position of the chisels or tool bits are exactly
defined with respect to the axis of rotation so that their paths through the
soil can be exactly traced for a given ratio of carrier speed to rotational
velocity.
In order to ascertain
that no object above a certain size, i.e., that of the smallest possible mine,
can escape being struck by a chisel or tool bit, the following condition must
be fulfilled:
(6x104 / i) v/n £ c
where
c = minimum size of the object measured in mm
i = number of tools per row over the parameter of the drum
v = transverse velocity of the carrier vehicles measured in m/sec
n = revolutions per minute of the drum
What is now needed
to ascertain that every object larger than c in a certain area, or more exactly,
in a certain volume of soil, is struck and destroyed, is the continuous measurement
of the following data and their electronic recording:
- the ratio v/n.
- the depth of tool penetration into the soil.
- the coordinates of the carrier vehicle with respect to a benchmark during
the
whole operation (to be measured by differential GPS).
This
results in the required detection process making manual demining superfluous,
and eliminates the considerable cost increase. If compliance with legal regulations
is needed, a second detection process can be used. To double check the clearance
of a mine in the soil, a clearing rake attached to a commercial tractor, such
as those used by the U.S. Army that can penetrate to the prescribed depth into
the soil can be used.
Global
Demining Capacity and Demining Rate of Farmland
Under the condition that
demining any agricultural land be economical, any deferment of its demining
and recultivation represents an opportunity loss. To estimate its lower limit
worldwide, we shall assume a global mine infested and mine suspected area of
100,000 km2 as mentioned in section 3.1, equally divided between
land suitable for mechanized demining and land requiring manual demining.
With the numbers taken
from Ref. 2, according to which 1 km2 produces food for approximately
1,000 people, the annual opportunity loss by not demining and recultivating
an area of 100,000 km2 is equivalent to the value of food for 100
million people. With the above assumption of $100 for food per person and year,
this corresponds to an annual loss of $10 billion per year.
By setting a target
of 20 years for the worldwide completion of the recultivation of all
mine affected and mine suspected land, the necessary capacities can be estimated.
By employing 1,000 demining machines each having a capacity of 10 km2/year,
the annually demined area is 10,000 km2. This means that within approximately
five years, the area suitable for mechanized demining (estimated at 50,000 km2)
could be demined and recultivated. Five years correspond to the lifetime of
a machine operating 3,000 hours per year. Assuming a price of 40 cents/m2,
the total cost of this phase of global demining would be approximately $20 billion.
There remain another 50,000 km2 for manual demining.
To achieve an average manual demining rate of 2,500 km2/year (corresponding to 1/20 of 50,000 km2), approximately 250,000 deminers with an average capacity of 10,000 m2/year each are required. It is beyond all imagination that such an army of deminers can ever be recruited and trained worldwide. An upper limit of 50,000 seems more realistic, with the result that the demining of the land not suited for mechanized demining will take 100 years instead of the targeted 20 years. It is to be hoped that, in the course of that time, technologies will be developed by which mines can be detected and removed more efficiently than.
There is no limit of scenarios
from which this task could be tackled. As far as our scenario is concerned,
it refers to average global conditions. It goes without saying that each country
affected by mine pollution will have to work pursuant to its own mine action
program geared to its own socioeconomic requirements.
Final
Remarks
The results of
this study are based on numerous assumptions regarding quantities, which were
estimated and therefore inevitably contain errors. The objective of this paper
was to find the orders of magnitude to determine the criteria to decide about
the economy of demining farmland that, even if not needed entirely now, will
be needed sooner or later as the world population increases. The author would
appreciate any suggestions regarding his assumptions and any corrections that
might lead to an improvement of the above results and to a better understanding
of the subject.
List of References:
1. BÜCHEL K.: “WIRTSCHAFTLICHKEIT AUSGEWÄHLTER KULTUREN” Internal Report, INGENIEURBUERO FÜR AGRAR- UND UMWELTBERATUNG Wegacker 15, FL-9493-Mauren/Liechtenstein
2. SMIL V.: ”GLOBAL POPULATION AND NITROGEN CYCLE” SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, July 1997 Scientific American Inc., 415 Madison Ave., New York, N.Y. 10017
3. “HIDDEN KILLERS” United States Department of State Publication 10 575
4. TREVELYAN J.P.: ”OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING THE MINE ACTION PROCESS”. Paper presented at the 2nd Meeting of the Standing Committee of Experts on Technologies for Mine Action May 24-25, 2000 in Geneva
5. TULICIC J., Coordinator International Assistance Programme, Govmt. Republic of Croatia. Croatian Mine Action Centre, Zagreb Verbal Communication
6. SAYED AQA, Field Director, Global Land Mine Survey, 2001 S. Street, Washington D.C. 20009, Verbal Communication
7. SCHOECK P.A.:“ PERFORMANCE CRITERIA FOR DEMINING PROCESSES-A CRITICAL REVIEW” (available as Internal Report, COUNTERMINE TECHNOLOGIES, Oxelgrensvägen 34 SE 15242 S ödertälje/Sweden)
The Author:
In 1984, Dr. Schoeck founded AMAXA Ltd. for DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY, RESCUE AND RECOVERY with headquarters in the Principality of Liechtenstein of which he is chairman. He is author of more than 60 scientific publications in the fields of Thermodynamics, Heat Transfer, Plasma propulsion, Biomechanics and Solar Energy. Dr. Schoeck is presently a technical consultant to a Scandinavian company active in mechanized demining in Balkan countries.
Contact Information
Dr. Peter Schoeck
Runkelsstr.27 FL Triesen / Liechtenstein
E-mail: schoeck@schoeck.lol.li